What? You thought I'd have the Braves? I thought about it.NLDS --> Braves 3, Cubs 2
The likelihood of major injuries happening to the Cubs (lots of older veterans and people with injury histories) is greater than that of the Braves (mostly a young team with Chipper and Anderson being the main concern). The Braves will be a little deeper in the 'pen and take the best of five series.
NLDS --> Diamondbacks 3, Phillies 1
In short series, you need just a couple of dominant starters, and I like Webb-Haren more than Hamels-Myers. The Phillies will have the experience, but they falter when Hamels can't repeat his '08 performance.
NLCS --> Braves 4, Diamondbacks 2
In longer series, you need a bit more depth in the rotation (favoring the Braves), but the Diamondbacks could throw Webb and Haren out there 2 or 3 times each, regardless (favoring the Diamondbacks). Because Webb and Haren aren't quite Johnson-Schilling, they don't make it this time. The Braves bullpen is also a little more dependable than that of the Diamondbacks. The Braves, the third-best team in the NL, make the World Series.
ALDS --> Red Sox 3, Angels 0
The Red Sox offense is still better than that of the Angels while both staffs are about equally strong. A renewed Ortiz fuels the Red Sox, while Lowell and Bay also contribute some timely hitting to get the Red Sox back into the ALCS.
ALDS --> Rays 3, Twins 1
The Rays have the best starting staff in the majors, and only Liriano can handle Kazmir. The rest of the pitchers for the Twins are solid but can't match Shields, Garza, and Price (who still comes out of the bullpen for this series). Upton continues his MVP season, but he doesn't quite match last year's explosion.
ALCS --> Red Sox 4, Rays 2
Big Papi continues his October dominance as the two staffs otherwise battle for several 4-3, 3-2 games. Both teams have depth, but the seasoned Red Sox find ways to beat the Rays, who get caught just short of last year's miracle run.
World Series --> Red Sox 4, Braves 1
The Braves make it back to the World Series, finally, but the Red Sox are just too good. Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, and Penny are better than Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, and Hanson (who pitches too well for Kawakami to get a start). In what could have been poetic justice, Smoltz earns a World Series ring without making it past August due to another injury. Ortiz doesn't quite play up to the past few series, but Bay lifts the team, forcing an interesting contract situation in Boston.
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3 comments:
I think you give the Braves more credit than they deserve. Although if they do face the Red Sox in the WS, I'll be rooting for them.
The Yankees could win 90+ games and still finish 3rd. Should be an interesting AL East battle.
Kevin
Braves fan. I have to be optimistic. Never said this would be completely unbiased, but I think the Braves have a legitimate shot.
Anyway, when looking at these, it's kind of a best-case scenario. If the Braves make it, I assume (for instance) that Soriano, Moylan, and Gonzalez are healthy and productive. If I had the choice of them vs. Qualls, Rauch, and Peña, I go with the Braves.
Ultimately, this really doesn't matter. Games start today, and we'll see how the season breaks. I just want to see the difference between the perception of how things go versus the actual ending.
Also, my AL East Predictions are a little farther down, and I agree that the Yankees (who I have winning 91) will finish third. That's a ridiculous three-team dogfight. But just as we say that, one of the teams will run away with it.
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