Cano v. Pedroia

Sorry Yankees fan. Cano's really good, but Might Mite is still just a biiiit better.

Joel Sherman asked a few baseball executives, "Who would you rather have for the next 5 seasons -- Cano or Pedroia?". All of them responded, "Pedroia". Mike Avisa, then, took a little bit of a closer look and stated that Cano was the better player. Sorry, but Pedroia is the better player.

First off, even though the executives were right, they were wrong. Both Sherman and Avisa correctly point out that the executives are stereotyping Cano a bit. Latin American players are often made out to be lazy and stubborn, and when that happens, it is almost impossible for them to shrug that off. Even if he was lazy last season, a) he hasn't been this season and b) does it really matter how lazy he is if he still produces (I know theoretically it does, but in practicality?)? So, we can drop that argument, and let's look at the stats.

Avisa points out a few things in the last paragraph (BA, SLG, OPS, XBH, and VORP) that show Cano to be the better offensive player this season. And you know what, Cano is the better offensive player this season. The thing is that it's not by much. Cano is only 1.5 runs better offensively than Pedroia, which is a difference, but let's continue a bit further.

But what about for their career trends? Cano was worth 20 runs on offense in 2006 and 15 in 2007 before dropping to -10 last season, and he's now worth 14. I'm not sure he's really worth 20 a season, and he's not as bad as -10. I'd put him around 15-17 for a season. Pedroia was worth 14 in 2007 before his MVP season was worth 29.5 last season, and this season, he's worth 12.4 as of now. Like Cano, his 2008 season isn't really indicative of how he'll probably play, but I'd put him in the 14-16 run range. Cano, more power, is the offensive player over Pedroia, who is better at getting on-base, but it's not really that big of a difference.

Where the big difference is comes on defense. Avisa and Sherman say they don't buy this year's UZR ratings, which is just fine. But again, let's look at the trends. For 3 of the past 4 seasons (other than what appears to be a fluky 2007 where he was really, really good), Cano has been consistently a little below average. To be fair, I think we can put him around -2 or -3 runs. Pedroia, on the other hand, has been consistently above-average. I'd put him around +9 for a season. That's a whole win better defensively, and that's much more than the 2 runs Cano is worth on offense. Even if Pedroia is only +5 on defense, the difference between the two defensively is still more than what it is offensively. Yes, maybe Cano has eliminated botching routine plays, but that's why his UZR is -3.3 instead of -8.0.

Add on that Pedroia is a whole year younger, and it's even more clear who you want.

As for the mental makeup, would you rather have a guy with zero makeup questions or a guy with a history of them? You do have to ask this question. Again, maybe Cano has turned the corner, but the earlier concerns are still concerns. But this is still the least important element of the entire evaluation.

Therefore, let's make a quick summary. Cano is better offensively because of his ability to hit for power, but adding in Pedroia's ability to get on-base a lot more, Cano is only slightly more valuable offensively. For the future, Cano could learn to be more patient, but it's also likely that Pedroia could hit for a bit more power. I'm not sure the difference in offensive value changes. On defense, Pedroia is simply (and substantially) the better defender, and I'm not sure how that is really going to change. Add in Pedroia's age and lack of character concerns (icing on the cake), and he's the better player. Sorry.

But let's look big picture. The two really aren't that different in terms of value. They are two of the best second basemen in the MLB, and we don't really know what the future holds. But if you ask me today based on what I've seen, I'll take Pedroia. He's a 4-win player over a 3.5-win player. Again, not much of a difference. Is it shocking that all 7 said, "Pedroia"? Sure. Do you expect the voting to be a bit more even? Well, if Pedroia's the better player, then, honestly, yes all of them should say, "Pedroia", even if it's close.

Final word -- even in Cano's "bounce-back" season and Pedroia's "disappointing" season, Pedroia is still the more valuable player (4.1 to 3.0) by a whole win. Does Cano's VORP outweigh that?